5 facts to support why the Eagles offensive philosophy needs to change if they are to ever win it all

Now to some of you, this may sound like a broken record that has been crazy-glued back together and broken again a few dozen times. It's understandable that some people believe that a pass happy offense that devalues the running game can win the super bowl; the crown jewel, and to this point the one thing that has escaped all Eagles teams to date, of the NFL. Actually, no it's not understandable. Its downright insane that with all the evidence year after year after year after year that in order to win the big game your team needs to be able to run and control the ball when it matters, people still insist that it's ok if the Eagles simply don't have one; or at least have a threatening one.

So, here are five facts, statistically backed, that support the argument that a running game is essential:

1. Last 10 Super Bowl Winners
- 2008: Steelers (9th) – Eagles 17th
- 2007: Giants (8th) – Eagles 20th
- 2006: Colts (18th) – Eagles 27th
- 2005: Steelers (1st) – Eagles 30th
- 2004: Patriots (5th) – Eagles 31st
- 2003: Patriots (12th) – Eagles 25th
- 2002: Buccs (23rd) – Eagles 5th
- 2001: Patriots (8th) – Eagles 23rd
- 2000: Ravens (5th) – Eagles 24th
- 1999: Rams (15th) – Eagles 19th

Look at the exceptions to being a top 15 rushing attempt team. In 2006 Peyton Manning chose to pass. He gets two running plays and a pass play to decide from every play. However, he used the running game in the second half of the SB to put it away. Peyton chose to pass, but the Colts could run the ball. In 2002 it didn’t matter what the offense did. All Brad Johnson was asked to do is not lose the game. The Buccs Defense was insane. Hence the reason we lost to them that year in the playoffs. Also, notice that we finished 5th that year. That was the year Donovan was hurt in the Arizona game and we were forced to go with Koy (until he broke his arm) and AJ Feeley.

2. Rushing Attempts

So lets look at the rank for the final four teams with a chance to make it to the Superbowl:

Jets (1st)

Saints (t-7th)

Vikings (9th)

Colts (31st)

EAGLES (28th)

I argue that the Colts have a system and quarterback in place that gets them wins against virtually every bad and average team and most good teams. Also they're defense gets teams off of the field. But the overriding thing (that I'll prove later) is that the Colts get more quality possessions (i.e. they run on thirds and short to get the first down) and extend drives where the Eagles don't because they pass so much. 3 of the 4 teams remaining are in the top 10 just ATTEMPTING to run the ball.

3. Time Of Possession

The old adage is "you can't score if you don't have the ball". This is one of the biggest areas the Eagles don't see eye to eye with facts on. They are like the one juror who insists the opposite of every other juror despite overwhelming evidence. Again, take the final four teams in the playoffs this year and look at the time of possession rankings.:

Vikings (4th)

Jets (7th)

Saints (11th)

Colts (31st)

EAGLES (28th)

Now, some may say, "Well look at the Colts. They don't need the ball much." That would be a shallow and small picture way of looking at the Colts. I looked at the two best passing defenses (yards/game) they faced this year -Tennessee (2nd), Seattle (3rd) - and the two closest games they had this year which happened to be against the 2nd and 3rd worst passing defenses they faced this year -Baltimore (24th) & New England (21st) respectively. Looking at the Seattle and Tennessee games that occurred weeks 4 and 5, respectively you will find that the Colts, against 2 of the top three passing defenses in the league won easily. If you focus on the time of possession rankings of these two teams, they finished 32nd (last) and 25th respectively. Against the Seahawks the Colts ran 22 times averaging 3.5 yards and against the Titans 21 times for 4.3 yards; losing the TOP battle both games by 3 and 7 minutes respectively. Imagine if the Colts had the Eagles philosophy and passed more? That's insane! Against the 24th and 21st passing defenses the Colts only won by 2 and 1 point respectively. Why? Look at the average rushing attempts ranking of the two teams (t-7th and 10th respectively). The Ravens attempted 31 rushes and won the TOP battle by 5 minutes, where the Patriots attempted 28 rushes and won the TOP battle by a whopping 10 minutes.

Bottom line, you can be the best passing team ever, but if you don't have the ball, you can't score.

4. Take This Away

Just because you get a lot of turnovers, it doesn't mean you do a lot with it. Of the four finalist this year, here is the turnover +/- rankings:

Saints +11 (3rd)

Vikings +6 (9th)

Colts +2 (14th)

Jets +1 (17th)

EAGLES +15 (2nd)

Yay!!! The Eagles are better than all four finalist for the Superbowl this year!! Whoo Hooo!! Oh wait, so why aren't we one of the four finalists then? Well consider this; the Eagles had more passing touchdowns than only the Jets and less rushing touchdowns than each of the four finalists. Also, only the Jets had fewer extra points made and the Eagles had more field goals made than all four teams despite leading the four in the turnover margin. So what does that mean? It equates to quality drives. You can get all the turnovers you want but the other teams scores touchdowns while if the Eagles scored at all, they were more likely to kick a field goal. 13-0 and 21-0 are completely different games. If you don't get quality drives, you aren't going to score. Quality drives start with my last point.

5. Can't stay on the field

You can argue that if a defense can't get off of the field, they aren't going to be very successful. Well the same can be said for an offense that can't stay on the field. The 3rd down conversion percentage and ranking of the final four teams is as follows:

Colts 49% (1st)

Vikings 45% (5th)

Saints 45% (6th)

Jets 37% (20th)

EAGLES 36% (23rd)

These are the teams that the Eagles are better than - Lions, Seahawks, Browns, Buccs, Rams, 49ers, Raiders, Chiefs and, dead last, the Bills. See any commonality here? Not a single playoff team below the Eagles and other than the Jets, the other three teams are in the top 6. If you are pass happy to the point where you pass more than any team on 3rd and 1 and have that horrendous conversion percentage, guess what? You're aren't going to win games that matter.

Here is my suggestion to Andy Reid. I don't care who your quarterback is (because the quarterback isn't the problem - the philosophy is) run the ball 7-9 times more a game and improve the defensive line so that you don't have to blitz to get pressure and you will win the Superbowl. The linebackers are young (once you retire Trot - sorry bro but you can't cover me right now and we need someone that can be on the field in any situation at middle linebacker) and the secondary, with the addition of a quality nickle back (please cut Hanson. Please!) the defense will return to its dominating glory.

To recap:

1. Offensive Philosophy - Run More

2. Offensive Philosophy - Run More

3. Improve the Defensive Line

4. Middle Linebacker

5. Nickle back

While it's great to be the "Gold Standard" at something, I want to remind you that the most coveted trophy in professional football is made of sterling silver; and its worth a whole heck of a lot more to the city of Philadelphia.